Mondelez (MDLZ) Stock - Excessively Leveraged?

Now trading at a price of $72.44, Mondelez International has moved -0.7% so far today.

Mondelez International returned gains of 23.3% last year, with its stock price reaching a high of $78.59 and a low of $54.72. Over the same period, the stock outperformed the S&P 500 index by 9.0%. More recently, the company's 50-day average price was $73.9. Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. Based in Chicago, IL, the large-cap Consumer Staples company has 91,000 full time employees. Mondelez International has offered a 2.1% dividend yield over the last 12 months.

Exceptional Profitability Overshadowed by Excessive Leverage:

2019-12-31 2020-12-31 2021-12-31 2022-12-31
Revenue (MM) $25,868 $26,581 $28,720 $31,496
Gross Margins 40.0% 39.3% 39.2% 35.9%
Operating Margins 15.6% 15.6% 16.9% 12.0%
Net Margins 14.96% 13.37% 14.97% 8.63%
Net Income (MM) $3,870 $3,555 $4,300 $2,717
Net Interest Expense (MM) -456 -608 -447 -423
Net Interest Expense (MM) -$456 -$608 -$447 -$423
Depreciation & Amort. (MM) -$1,047 -$1,116 -$1,113 -$1,107
Earnings Per Share $2.65 $2.47 $3.04 $2.87
EPS Growth n/a -6.79% 23.08% -5.59%
Diluted Shares (MM) 1,458 1,441 1,413 1,362
Free Cash Flow (MM) $3,040 $3,101 $3,176 $3,002
Capital Expenditures (MM) -$925 -$863 -$965 -$906
Net Current Assets (MM) -$29,568 -$30,177 -$28,427 -$34,150
Current Ratio 0.5 0.66 0.74 0.6
Long Term Debt (MM) $14,207 $17,276 $17,550 $20,251
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.19 2.53 2.26 4.11

Mondelez International benefits from growing revenues and a flat capital expenditure trend, strong margins with a negative growth trend, and a steady stream of strong cash flows. The company's financial statements show wider gross margins than its peer group and positive EPS growth. However, the firm has a highly leveraged balance sheet.

Mondelez International's Valuation Is in Line With Its Sector Averages:

Mondelez International has a trailing twelve month P/E ratio of 25.7, compared to an average of 24.36 for the Consumer Staples sector. Based on its EPS guidance of $3.48, the company has a forward P/E ratio of 21.2. The 5.6% compound average growth rate of Mondelez International's historical and projected earnings per share yields a PEG ratio of 4.6. This suggests that these shares are overvalued. In contrast, the market is likely undervaluing Mondelez International in terms of its equity because its P/B ratio is 3.5 while the sector average is 4.29. The company's shares are currently trading 101.9% above their Graham number.

Mondelez International Has an Analyst Consensus of Some Upside Potential:

The 21 analysts following Mondelez International have set target prices ranging from $72.0 to $86.0 per share, for an average of $81.33 with a buy rating. As of April 2023, the company is trading -9.1% away from its average target price, indicating that there is an analyst consensus of some upside potential.

Mondelez International has a very low short interest because 1.0% of the company's shares are sold short. Institutions own 82.1% of the company's shares, and the insider ownership rate stands at 0.16%, suggesting a small amount of insider investors. The largest shareholder is the Vanguard Group, Inc., whose 9% stake in the company is worth $8,974,447,455.

The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.

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