Now trading at a price of $141.6, Progressive has moved 1.9% so far today.
Progressive returned gains of 14.0% last year, with its stock price reaching a high of $149.87 and a low of $110.04. Over the same period, the stock returned a similar cumulative performance to the S&P 500. As of April 2023, the company's 50-day average price was $133.27.
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. Based in Mayfield, OH, the large-cap Finance company has 55,100 full time employees. Progressive has offered a 0.3% dividend yield over the last 12 months.
The Business Runs With Low Debt Levels:
| 2018-02-27 | 2019-02-27 | 2020-03-02 | 2021-03-01 | 2022-02-28 | 2023-02-02 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (MM) | $26,839 | $31,979 | $39,022 | $42,658 | $47,702 | $49,611 |
| Interest Income (MM) | -$153 | -$166 | -$190 | -$217 | -$219 | -$244 |
| Operating Margins | 9% | 10% | 14% | 17% | 9% | 2% |
| Net Margins | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 1% |
| Net Income (MM) | $1,592 | $2,615 | $3,970 | $5,705 | $3,352 | $722 |
| Depreciation & Amort. (MM) | -$236 | -$262 | -$306 | -$332 | -$337 | -$337 |
| Earnings Per Share | $2.72 | $4.42 | $6.72 | $10.71 | $4.21 | -$3.63 |
| EPS Growth | n/a | 62.5% | 52.04% | 59.38% | -60.69% | -186.22% |
| Diluted Shares (MM) | 586 | 587 | 587 | 588 | 585 | 585 |
| Free Cash Flow (MM) | $3,897 | $6,541 | $6,208 | $6,884 | $7,696 | $6,814 |
| Capital Expenditures (MM) | -$140 | -$257 | $53 | $22 | $66 | $35 |
| Long Term Debt (MM) | $3,306 | $4,405 | $4,407 | $5,396 | $4,899 | $6,388 |
Progressive has low debt levels, decent operating margins with a negative growth trend, and positive EPS growth. Furthermore, Progressive has weak revenue growth and a flat capital expenditure trend and irregular cash flows.
Progressive Has Elevated P/B and P/E Ratios:
Progressive has a trailing twelve month P/E ratio of 45.8, compared to an average of 14.34 for the Finance sector. Based on its EPS guidance of $7.48, the company has a forward P/E ratio of 17.8. The company doesn't issue forward earnings guidance, and the compound average growth rate of its last 6 years of reported EPS is 1.1%. On this basis, the company's PEG ratio is 40.47, which suggests that it is overpriced. Furthermore, Progressive is likely overvalued compared to the book value of its equity, since its P/B ratio of 5.11 is higher than the sector average of 1.57.
There's an Analyst Consensus of Little Upside Potential for Progressive:
The 15 analysts following Progressive have set target prices ranging from $109.0 to $203.0 per share, for an average of $141.47 with a hold rating. As of April 2023, the company is trading -5.8% away from its average target price, indicating that there is an analyst consensus of little upside potential.
Progressive has a very low short interest because 0.6% of the company's shares are sold short. Institutions own 87.4% of the company's shares, and the insider ownership rate stands at 0.31%, suggesting a small amount of insider investors. The largest shareholder is Vanguard Group Inc, whose 9% stake in the company is worth $7,241,778,038.
