Allison Transmission does not have the profile of a defensive investment based on the requirements of Ben Graham. The Auto Parts firm may nonetheless be of interest to more risk-oriented investors who have a solid thesis on the company's future growth. At Market Inference, we remain agnostic as to such further developments, and prefer to use a company's past track record as the bellwether for future potential gains.
Allison Transmission Is Probably Overvalued
Graham devised the below equation to give investors a quick way of determining whether a stock is trading at a fair multiple of its earnings and its assets:
√(22.5 * 6 year average earnings per share (4.08) * 6 year average book value per share (11.796) = $28.31
After an impressive 71.0% performance over the 12 months, Allison Transmission is now trading well over its fair value because its Graham number is 110.6% above today's share price of $59.61. Even though the stock does not trade at an attractive multiple, it might still meet some of the other criteria for quality stocks that Graham listed in Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor.
Negative Retained Earnings In 2019, 2020, And 2021, An Acceptable Record Of Dividends, and Eps Growth In Excess Of Graham'S Requirements
Ben Graham wrote that an investment in a company with a record of positive retained earnings could contribute significantly to the margin of safety. However, Allison Transmission had negative retained earnings in 2019, 2020, and 2021 with an average of $-706983333.3333334 over this period.
Another one of Graham's requirements is for a 30% or more cumulative growth rate of the company's earnings per share over the last ten years.To determine Allison Transmission's EPS growth over time, we will average out its EPS for 2010, 2011, and 2012, which were $0.16, $0.56, and $0.06 respectively. This gives us an average of $0.26 for the period of 2010 to 2012. Next, we compare this value with the average EPS reported in 2020, 2021, and 2022, which were $2.62, $4.13, and $5.53, for an average of $4.09. Now we see that Allison Transmission's EPS growth was 1473.08% during this period, which satisfies Ben Graham's requirement.
Shareholders of Allison Transmission have received regular dividends since 2012. The company has returned an average dividend yield of 1.7% over the last five years.
Negative Current Asset to Liabilities Balance and a Decent Current Ratio
Graham sought companies with extremely low debt levels compared to their assets. For one, he expected their current ratio to be over 2 and their long term debt to net current asset ratio to be near, or ideally under, under 1. Allison Transmission fails on both counts with a current ratio of 1.8 and a debt to net current asset ratio of -0.8.
Conclusion
According to Graham's analysis, Allison Transmission is likely a company of average quality, which does not offer a significant enough margin of safety for a risk averse investor.
| 2018-02-15 | 2019-02-26 | 2020-02-27 | 2021-02-18 | 2022-02-17 | 2023-02-16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (MM) | $2,262 | $2,713 | $2,698 | $2,081 | $2,402 | $2,769 |
| Gross Margins | 50.0% | 52.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 48.0% | 47.0% |
| Operating Margins | 28% | 34% | 33% | 26% | 28% | 28% |
| Net Margins | 22.0% | 24.0% | 22.0% | 14.0% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| Net Income (MM) | $504 | $639 | $604 | $299 | $442 | $531 |
| Net Interest Expense (MM) | -$103 | -$121 | -$134 | -$137 | -$116 | -$118 |
| Depreciation & Amort. (MM) | -$170 | -$164 | -$167 | -$148 | -$150 | -$155 |
| Earnings Per Share | $3.36 | $4.77 | $4.91 | $2.62 | $4.17 | $4.65 |
| EPS Growth | n/a | 41.96% | 2.94% | -46.64% | 59.16% | 11.51% |
| Diluted Shares (MM) | 150 | 134 | 123 | 114 | 106 | 114 |
| Free Cash Flow (MM) | $749 | $937 | $1,019 | $676 | $810 | $822 |
| Capital Expenditures (MM) | -$91 | -$100 | -$172 | -$115 | -$175 | -$165 |
| Net Current Assets (MM) | -$2,884 | -$2,853 | -$2,983 | -$2,965 | -$3,152 | -$2,931 |
| Long Term Debt (MM) | $2,534 | $2,523 | $2,512 | $2,507 | $2,504 | $2,501 |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 2.86 | 2.11 | 2.21 | 3.23 | 2.91 | 2.42 |
