Parsons is currently trading at $56.91 per share and has a Graham number of $21.15, which implies that it is 169.1% above its fair value. We calculate the Graham number as follows:
√(22.5 * 5 year average earnings per share * book value per share) = √(22.5 * 0.95 * 20.208) = 21.15
The Graham number is one of seven factors that Graham enumerates in Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor for determining whether a stock offers a margin of safety. Rather than use the Graham number by itself, its best to consider it alongside the following fundamental metrics:
Sales Revenue Should Be No Less Than $500 million
For Parsons, average sales revenue over the last 4 years has been $3.93 Billion, so in the context of the Graham analysis the stock has impressive sales revenue. Originally the threshold was $100 million, but since the book was published in the 1970s it's necessary to adjust the figure for inflation.
Current Assets Should Be at Least Twice Current Liabilities
We calculate Parsons's current ratio by dividing its total current assets of $1.72 Billion by its total current liabilities of $1.11 Billion. Current assets refer to company assets that can be transferred into cash within one year, such as accounts receivable, inventory, and liquid financial instruments. Current liabilities, on the other hand, refer to those that will come due within one year. Parsons’s current assets outweigh its current liabilities by a factor of 1.6 only.
The Company’s Long-term Debt Should Not Exceed its Net Current Assets
This means that its ratio of debt to net current assets should be 1 or less. Since Parsons’s debt ratio is -1.9, the company has much more liabilities than current assets. We calculate Parsons’s debt to net current assets ratio by dividing its total long term of debt of $743.6 Million by its current assets minus total liabilities of $2.1 Billion.
The Stock Should Have a Positive Level of Retained Earnings Over Several Years
Parsons had negative retained earnings in 2019 and 2020 with an average of $-67317800.0. Retained earnings are the sum of the current and previous reporting periods' net asset amounts, minus all dividend payments. It's a similar metric to free cash flow, with the difference that retained earnings are accounted for on an accrual basis.
There Should Be a Record of Uninterrupted Dividend Payments Over the Last 20 Years
We have no record of Parsons offering a regular dividend within the last twenty years.
A Minimum Increase of at Least One-third in Earnings per Share (EPS) Over the Past 10 Years
Parsons's EPS growth rate does not meet Graham's requirement of a minimum 30% growth rate over 10 years, but the growth rate is positive nonetheless over a 6 year period. We calculate the EPS growth rate from the values reported in 2017 and 2018, which were $1.16 and $0.10, giving us an average of $0.63. Then we do the same for the years 2021 and 2022, which gives us an average of $0.73 from their reported values of $0.59 and $0.87. The growth rate between the two averages is 15.87% — indicating a respectable upwards EPS growth trend for Parsons.
Parsons does not have the profile of a defensive stock according to Benjamin Graham's criteria because in addition to trading far above its fair value, it has:
- impressive sales revenue
- a decent current ratio
- much more liabilities than current assets
- negative retained earnings in 2019 and 2020
- no dividend record
- some EPS growth
