LYB

Is the Bearish Sentiment on LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Justified?

LyondellBasell Industries NV may be undervalued with poor growth indicators, but the 21 analysts following the company give it an rating of hold. Their target prices range from $85.0 to $115.0 per share, for an average of $100.81. At today's price of $95.56, LyondellBasell Industries NV is trading -5.21% away from its average target price, suggesting there is an analyst consensus of some upside potential for the stock.

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, Japan, China, the Netherlands, and internationally. Based in Houston, TX, the large-cap Industrials company has 19,300 full time employees. LyondellBasell Industries NV has provided a 5.1% dividend yield over the last 12 months.

LyondellBasell Industries NV has a trailing twelve month P/E ratio of 13.7, compared to an average of 22.19 for the Industrials sector. Considering its EPS guidance of $9.48, the company has a forward P/E ratio of 10.1.

The average compound growth rate of the company's historical and projected earnings per share is -3.3%. On this basis, the company's PEG ratio is -4.01, which indicates that its shares are overpriced.

On the other hand, the market is potentially undervaluing LyondellBasell Industries NV in terms of its book value because its P/B ratio is 2.35. In comparison, the sector average P/B ratio is 4.06. The company's shares are currently 19.3% above their Graham number, which suggests that they are not trading at a fair value in terms of earnings and net assets.

The question is, why does LyondellBasell Industries NV have a bad rating if it is apparently undervalued in terms of traditional metrics? One reason could be the company's disappointing rate of margin growth, which in the analysts' opinion, will continue in coming years.

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Revenue (MM) $39,004 $34,727 $27,753 $46,173 $50,451 $42,265
Revenue Growth n/a -10.97% -20.08% 66.37% 9.27% -16.23%
Operating Margins 14% 12% 6% 15% 10% 8%
Net Margins 12% 10% 9% 12% 8% 5%
Net Income (MM) $4,698 $3,404 $2,580 $5,623 $3,894 $2,295
Net Interest Expense (MM) $360 $347 $526 $519 $287 $441
Depreciation & Amort. (MM) $1,241 $1,312 $1,385 $1,393 $1,267 $1,488
Earnings Per Share $12.01 $9.58 $4.24 $16.75 $11.81 $6.99
EPS Growth n/a -20.23% -55.74% 295.05% -29.49% -40.81%
Free Cash Flow (MM) $3,366 $2,267 $1,457 $5,736 $4,229 $3,522
Capital Expenditures (MM) $2,105 $2,694 $1,947 $1,959 $1,890 $1,520
Current Ratio 1.92 1.83 2.11 1.69 1.75 1.89
Total Debt (MM) $9,387 $12,062 $15,957 $11,614 $11,321 $11,656
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.38 2.06 4.82 1.24 1.44 1.87
The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.

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