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Analyzing Moderna (MRNA) Through an Investor's Lens

Moderna logged a -0.6% change during today's morning session, and is now trading at a price of $27.38 per share.

Moderna returned losses of -52.8% last year, with its stock price reaching a high of $59.73 and a low of $23.15. Over the same period, the stock underperformed the S&P 500 index by -70.0%. AThe company's 50-day average price was $26.36. Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Based in Cambridge, MA, the Large-Cap Health Care company has 5,800 full time employees. Moderna has not offered a dividend during the last year.

The Firm Has a Declining EPS Growth Trend:

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue (M) $60 $803 $18,471 $19,263 $6,848 $3,236
Operating Margins -910% -95% 72% 49% -62% -122%
Net Margins -857% -93% 66% 43% -69% -110%
Net Income (M) -$514 -$747 $12,202 $8,362 -$4,714 -$3,561
Net Interest Expense (M) -$8 -$6 -$29 -$45 -$124 $24
Depreciation & Amort. (M) $31 $31 $232 $348 $617 $185
Diluted Shares (M) 331 381 431 416 382 384
Earnings Per Share -$1.55 -$1.96 $28.29 $20.12 -$12.33 -$9.28
EPS Growth n/a -26.45% 1543.37% -28.88% -161.28% 24.74%
Avg. Price $18.12 $62.5 $247.68 $155.92 $99.45 $27.54
P/E Ratio -11.69 -31.89 8.17 7.33 -8.07 -2.97
Free Cash Flow (M) -$491 $1,959 $13,336 $4,581 -$3,825 -$4,055
CAPEX (M) $32 $68 $284 $400 $707 $1,051
Current Ratio 7.89 1.43 1.76 2.73 3.42 3.67

Moderna does not have a meaningful trailing P/E ratio since its earnings per share are negative. Its forward EPS guidance is negative too, at $-8.7. The average P/E ratio for the Health Care sector is 22.94. On the other hand, the market is undervaluing Moderna in terms of its equity because its P/B ratio is 1.13. In comparison, the sector average is 3.19. In conclusion, Moderna's impressive cash flow trend, decent P/B ratio, and reasonable use of leverage demonstrate that the company may still be fairly valued — despite its elevated earnings multiple.

Moderna Has an Average Rating of Hold:

The 20 analysts following Moderna have set target prices ranging from $15.0 to $198.0 per share, for an average of $44.25 with a hold rating. The company is trading -38.1% away from its average target price, indicating that there is an analyst consensus of strong upside potential.

Moderna has an unusually large proportion of its shares sold short because 22.5% of the company's shares are sold short. Institutions own 74.9% of the company's shares, and the insider ownership rate stands at 7.24%, suggesting a large amount of insider shareholders. The largest shareholder is Vanguard Group Inc, whose 11% stake in the company is worth $1,142,142,857.

The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.

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