Why Is ConocoPhillips (COP) Rising Today?

We have noted ConocoPhillips's positive performance during today's afternoon trading session, during which it logged a 7.4% outperformance of the S&P 500. At its current price of $135.29, the company is now trading in range of its average target price of $129.94, which calls into question its ability to keep moving higher. Analysts have given the Fossil Fuel Exploration and Production stock target prices ranging from $87 to $167 dollars per share, with an average rating of buy.

The market seems to share this rosy outlook, since ConocoPhillips has a short interest of only 1.4%. This represents the percentage of the share float that is being shorted, and each short position stands for an investor's expectation that the price of the stock will go down in the future.

When a stock is sold short, it means an investor has borrowed shares of the stock from their broker, and then sold them at the going market price. The investor hopes for the price to decline, so that they might buy those shares back at a lower price in the future. Once they do, they can return the borrowed shares to their broker, and keep the profit they made on the transaction.

One way to get an idea of the market sentiment on a stock is to check its rate of institutional ownership. In the case of ConocoPhillips, institutional investors own 82.1% of the shares. This would indicate a positive sentiment towards the stock among institutions. What does this really tell us?

Institutional investors such as hedge funds, investment firms, and wealth managers devote significant resources to identifying good investments. If they have decided to invest in COP, it probably means they believe it is a solid investment choice. But it could also mean they are buying up shares in an effort to acquire the company or get seats on the board of directors. Also bear in mind that institutions are fallible (just maybe not quite as fallible as the average retail investor), so they may simply be wrong when they think they've found a good stock.

Overall, there is mostly positive market sentiment on ConocoPhillips because of its an analyst consensus of little upside potential, a buy rating, a very low short interest, and a significant number of institutional investors. Warren Buffett famously said that in the short term, markets are voting mechanisms, but in the long term, they are weighing mechanisms. This means that long term investors should be aware of a stock's fundamentals before committing.

Buffett was one of the fist investors to focus on free cash flow as a yardstick for a company's health. Here are COP's recent cash flows:

Date Reported Cash Flow from Operations ($) Capital expenditures ($) Free Cash Flow ($) YoY Growth (%)
2021-12-31 16,996,000,000.0 -5,324,000,000.0 11,672,000,000.0 13316.09
2020-12-31 4,802,000,000.0 -4,715,000,000.0 87,000,000.0 -98.05
2019-12-31 11,104,000,000.0 -6,636,000,000.0 4,468,000,000.0 -27.75
2018-12-31 12,934,000,000.0 -6,750,000,000.0 6,184,000,000.0 n/a

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The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.