Don't Miss These Facts About National Vision

Now trading at a price of $43.53, National Vision has moved 3.7% so far today. In contrast, the S&P 500 index moved 1.4%. Read below for a basic value analysis of National Vision.

National Vision shares moved 7.7% over the last 52 weeks, with a high of $45.86 and a low of $22.59. During this time, the stock outperformed the S&P 500 index by 15.7%. As of January 2022, the company's 50-day average price is $40.0. National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The mid-cap Consumer Cyclical company has 13,735 full time employees and is based in Duluth, GA. National Vision has not offered any dividends in the last year.

Operating Margins Consistently Higher Than the 5.43% Industry Average:

2019-12-31 2020-12-31 2021-12-31
Revenue (MM) $1,724 $1,712 $2,080
Revenue Growth n/a -0.73% 21.48%
Gross Margins 53.2% 54.0% 56.5%
Gross Margins Growth n/a 1.5% 4.63%
Operating Margins 4.8% 6.6% 8.6%
Operating Margins Growth n/a 37.5% 30.3%
Earnings Per Share $0.4 $0.44 $1.43
EPS Growth n/a 10.0% 225.0%
Free Cash Flow (MM) $64 $158 $163
FCF Growth n/a 148.07% 3.33%
Capital Expenditures (MM) -$101 -$77 -$96
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.43 1.53 1.09

National Vision Is Overpriced:

Compared to the Consumer Cyclical sector's average of 24.11, National Vision has a trailing twelve month P/E ratio of 58.0 and, according to its EPS guidance of 0.98, an expected P/E ratio of 44.4. National Vision's PEG ratio is 0.85 based on its 68.0% annual average growth rate of historical and projected earnings per share. However, we believe that it is more prudent to calculate the PEG ratio using the broader market's 5-year expected EPS growth rate of 13.05%, because the growth rate implied by National Vision's past and expected EPS is probably not sustainable. This more prudent approach shows a PEG ratio of 4.45, which suggests that the company's shares are actually overvalued.

National Vision's P/B ratio is 3.8 compared to its sector average of 3.11. The company is likely overvalued in terms of its net asset value. The company's shares are currently trading 210.5% above their fair value as expressed by Benjamin Graham's formula:

√(22.5 * 3-year average EPS * book value per share) = √(22.5 * 0.76 * 11.493) = $14.02

National Vision Is the Subject of Mixed Market Indicators:

11 analysts are following National Vision and have set target prices ranging from $27 to $50 per share. On average, they have given the company a rating of buy. At the current price of $43.53, EYE is trading 4.31% away from its average analyst target price of $41.73 per share, implying an analyst consensus of little upside potential for the stock.

The company has an above average percentage of its shares sold short since 10.5% of the company's shares are tied to short positions. Institutions own 125.3% of National Vision's shares, while the insider ownership rate stands at 1.84%. The biggest shareholder is Blackrock Inc. with a 16% stake in the company worth approximately $542,604,351.

The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.