Rocketing to a price of $57.2 during today's afternoon trading session, shares of Occidental Petroleum are still -18.23% below their average target price of $69.95. Could there be more upside potential for the stock? Analysts are giving OXY an average rating of hold and target prices ranging from $60.0 to $85.0 dollars per share.
Occidental Petroleum's short interest can give us an idea of what future price movements the market expects from the stock. The short interest is the percentage of shares that are tied up in short positions, which will provide gains to the investor only if the stock price falls. The stock's short interest is 9.1% which seems to indicate a mixed sentiment on OXY
When a stock is sold short, it means an investor has borrowed shares of the stock from their broker, and then sold them at the going market price. The investor hopes for the price to decline, so that they might buy those shares back at a lower price in the future. Once they do, they can return the borrowed shares to their broker, and keep the profit they made on the transaction.
One way to get an idea of the market sentiment on a stock is to check its rate of institutional ownership. In the case of Occidental Petroleum, institutional investors own 80.0% of the shares. This would indicate a positive sentiment towards the stock among institutions. What does this really tell us?
Institutional investors such as hedge funds, investment firms, and wealth managers devote significant resources to identifying good investments. If they have decided to invest in OXY, it probably means they believe it is a solid investment choice. But it could also mean they are buying up shares in an effort to acquire the company or get seats on the board of directors. Also bear in mind that institutions are fallible (just maybe not quite as fallible as the average retail investor), so they may simply be wrong when they think they've found a good stock.
Overall, there is negative market sentiment on Occidental Petroleum because its an analyst consensus of some upside potential, a hold rating, an above average percentage of its shares sold short, and an average number of institutional investors. Warren Buffett famously said that in the short term, markets are voting mechanisms, but in the long term, they are weighing mechanisms. This means that long term investors should be aware of a stock's fundamentals before committing.
Buffett was one of the fist investors to focus on free cash flow as a yardstick for a company's health. Here are OXY's recent cash flows:
| Date Reported | Cash Flow from Operations ($ k) | Capital expenditures ($ k) | Free Cash Flow ($ k) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16,810,000 | 6,246,000 | 10,564,000 | -14.2 |
| 2022 | 16,810,000 | 4,497,000 | 12,313,000 | 62.78 |
| 2021 | 10,434,000 | 2,870,000 | 7,564,000 | 432.68 |
| 2020 | 3,955,000 | 2,535,000 | 1,420,000 | 40.87 |
| 2019 | 7,375,000 | 6,367,000 | 1,008,000 | -62.58 |
| 2018 | 7,669,000 | 4,975,000 | 2,694,000 |
