Progressive may be undervalued with mixed growth prospects, but the 21 analysts following the company give it an rating of hold. Their target prices range from $190.0 to $325.0 per share, for an average of $230.81. At today's price of $201.81, Progressive is trading -12.56% away from its average target price, suggesting there is an analyst consensus of some upside potential for the stock.
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. Based in Mayfield, OH, the Large-Cap Finance company has 70,053 full time employees. Progressive has provided a 7.1% dividend yield over the last 12 months.
Progressive has a trailing twelve month P/E ratio of 10.3, compared to an average of 15.92 for the Finance sector. Considering its EPS guidance of $16.18, the company has a forward P/E ratio of 12.5.
Progressive is overpriced compared to its book value, since its P/B ratio of 3.68 is higher than the sector average of 1.78. The company's shares are currently 35.1% below their Graham number, indicating that its shares have a margin of safety.
If analysts are giving the stock a bad rating, it's likely that they are looking beyond simple valaution metrics and attempting to forecast the company's growth potential. For example, Progressive has narrow margins as you can see in the financial summary below.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (M) | $42,658 | $47,702 | $49,611 | $62,109 | $75,372 | $87,671 |
| Interest Income (M) | $217 | $219 | $244 | $268 | $279 | $278 |
| Operating Margins | 17% | 9% | 2% | 8% | 14% | 16% |
| Net Margins | 13% | 7% | 1% | 6% | 11% | 13% |
| Net Income (M) | $5,705 | $3,351 | $722 | $3,903 | $8,480 | $11,308 |
| Depreciation & Amort. (M) | $275 | $280 | $306 | $285 | $284 | $313 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 588 | 587 | 587 | 588 | 588 | 588 |
| Earnings Per Share | $9.66 | $5.66 | $1.18 | $6.58 | $14.4 | $19.23 |
| EPS Growth | n/a | -41.41% | -79.15% | 457.63% | 118.84% | 33.54% |
| Avg. Price | $79.01 | $93.11 | $110.63 | $159.28 | $239.0 | $196.91 |
| P/E Ratio | 8.14 | 16.36 | 92.97 | 24.1 | 16.54 | 10.21 |
| Free Cash Flow (M) | $6,682 | $7,518 | $6,557 | $10,391 | $14,834 | $17,200 |
| CAPEX (M) | $224 | $244 | $292 | $252 | $285 | $348 |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.92 | 13.19 | 57.71 | 19.28 | 13.34 | 8.41 |
| Total Debt (M) | $5,396 | $4,899 | $6,388 | $6,889 | $6,893 | $6,897 |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 0.71 | 1.05 | 5.02 | 1.31 | 0.61 | 0.46 |
