KeyCorp said at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference that it is now expecting full-year 2026 operating revenue to rise about 8% from a 2025 base of $7.513 billion, slightly better than its prior outlook of 7% to 8%.
Net interest income is projected to increase 9% to 11% from $4.671 billion in 2025, while the company’s net interest margin is expected to exit the fourth quarter of 2026 in a range of 3.00% to 3.05%. Key also said average earning assets are expected to grow by $1 billion to $2 billion from the second quarter of 2026.
Noninterest income is forecast to rise 4% to 5% from a 2025 base of $2.842 billion, an improvement from the prior 3% to 4% range. On an adjusted basis, noninterest income is expected to climb 6% to 7% from a 2025 base of $2.495 billion, up from the earlier 5% to 6% outlook.
Adjusted noninterest expense is now projected to rise about 4% from a 2025 base of $4.729 billion, compared with the prior estimate of 3% to 4%.
On the lending side, average loans are expected to grow 4% to 5% from a 2025 base of $105.7 billion, while average commercial loans are projected to increase 8% to 10% from $74.5 billion.
Credit costs are expected to run at 40 to 45 basis points of average loans. Key said its GAAP tax rate should be about 22%, while its tax-equivalent effective rate is expected to be about 23%.
The company is targeting return on tangible common equity of 16% to 19%, with marked CET1 above 9.5% and a 3.25%+ / 15%+ NIM and ROTCE framework. As a result of these announcements, the company's shares have moved 1.3% on the market, and are now trading at a price of $22.125. For more information, read the company's full 8-K submission here.
