Access comprehensive financial analyses and make smarter investments - get the Manual of Investments on Amazon!

Astrana Health Expects $4.1B Revenue in 2026

Astrana Health said it expects 2026 revenue of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $255 million to $280 million, up from a business that has scaled across 16 markets and now serves about 1.5 million members in value-based arrangements.

The company said its platform now spans more than 20,000 providers and 20-plus payer partners, with average annual provider retention at 99% and average provider tenure at Care Partners of about 11 years.

In its 2026 investor presentation, Astrana highlighted a revenue mix that is still heavily concentrated in government programs: Medicare accounted for 61% of revenue, Medicaid 27%, commercial 9%, and other third parties 3%. By risk arrangement, 81% of revenue came from full-risk contracts and 19% from partial-risk contracts.

The member base is also predominantly full-risk: 93% of members were in full-risk arrangements, compared with 2% in partial-risk, 3% in capitation, 1% in fee-for-service, and 1% in other income categories.

Astrana said its model is producing measurable utilization changes. It cited 14% shorter inpatient length of stay versus benchmark, 67% fewer hospital admissions than benchmark, and roughly 70% of prior authorizations auto-approved.

The company also said its network expanded from one market to 16 markets nationwide, underscoring the scale-up behind the revenue and EBITDA outlook. As a result of these announcements, the company's shares have moved -1.73% on the market, and are now trading at a price of $38.916. Check out the company's full 8-K submission here.

The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.

IN FOCUS