Astrana Health said it expects 2026 revenue of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $255 million to $280 million, up from a business that has scaled across 16 markets and now serves about 1.5 million members in value-based arrangements.
The company said its platform now spans more than 20,000 providers and 20-plus payer partners, with average annual provider retention at 99% and average provider tenure at Care Partners of about 11 years.
In its 2026 investor presentation, Astrana highlighted a revenue mix that is still heavily concentrated in government programs: Medicare accounted for 61% of revenue, Medicaid 27%, commercial 9%, and other third parties 3%. By risk arrangement, 81% of revenue came from full-risk contracts and 19% from partial-risk contracts.
The member base is also predominantly full-risk: 93% of members were in full-risk arrangements, compared with 2% in partial-risk, 3% in capitation, 1% in fee-for-service, and 1% in other income categories.
Astrana said its model is producing measurable utilization changes. It cited 14% shorter inpatient length of stay versus benchmark, 67% fewer hospital admissions than benchmark, and roughly 70% of prior authorizations auto-approved.
The company also said its network expanded from one market to 16 markets nationwide, underscoring the scale-up behind the revenue and EBITDA outlook. As a result of these announcements, the company's shares have moved -1.73% on the market, and are now trading at a price of $38.916. Check out the company's full 8-K submission here.
