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Don't Judge Expedia on Technicals Alone - Check Its Fundamentals!

Expedia logged a -0.0% change during today's afternoon session, and is now trading at a price of $226.12 per share.

Expedia returned gains of 42.8% last year, with its stock price reaching a high of $240.98 and a low of $130.01. Over the same period, the stock outperformed the S&P 500 index by 26.6%. More recently, the company's 50-day average price was $216.18. Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. Based in Seattle, WA, the Large-Cap Consumer Discretionary company has 16,500 full time employees. Expedia has offered a 0.4% dividend yield over the last 12 months.

The Company's Revenues Are Declining:

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue (M) $12,067 $5,199 $8,598 $11,667 $12,839 $13,691
Operating Margins 7% -52% 2% 9% 8% 10%
Net Margins 5% -50% 0% 3% 6% 9%
Net Income (M) $565 -$2,612 $12 $352 $797 $1,234
Net Interest Expense (M) $173 $360 $351 $277 $245 $231
Depreciation & Amort. (M) $712 $739 $715 $704 $748 $781
Diluted Shares (M) 150 141 150 162 150 138
Earnings Per Share $3.77 -$19.0 -$1.8 $2.17 $5.31 $8.95
EPS Growth n/a -603.98% 90.53% 220.56% 144.7% 68.55%
Avg. Price $122.28 $92.82 $162.56 $161.69 $151.79 $226.14
P/E Ratio 31.84 -4.89 -90.31 72.18 27.6 24.08
Free Cash Flow (M) $1,607 -$4,631 $3,075 $2,778 $1,844 $2,329
CAPEX (M) $1,160 $797 $673 $662 $846 $756
EV / EBITDA 14.74 -13.16 39.33 18.76 17.72 18.16
Total Debt (M) $9,127 $16,432 $16,165 $12,480 $12,506 $11,489
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.6 -6.6 13.38 4.69 4.65 3.48
Current Ratio 0.72 1.04 0.87 0.82 0.78 0.72

Expedia has generally positive cash flows, decent operating margins with a positive growth rate, and a strong EPS growth trend. However, the firm suffers from slight revenue growth and decreasing reinvestment in the business and not enough current assets to cover current liabilities because its current ratio is 0.72. Finally, we note that Expedia has significant leverage levels.

Expedia's Valuation Is in Line With Its Sector Averages:

Expedia has a trailing twelve month P/E ratio of 26.6, compared to an average of 20.93 for the Consumer Discretionary sector. Based on its EPS guidance of $14.36, the company has a forward P/E ratio of 15.1. According to the 21.1% compound average growth rate of Expedia's historical and projected earnings per share, the company's PEG ratio is 1.26. Taking the weighted average of the company's EPS CAGR and the broader market's 5-year projected EPS growth rate, we obtain a normalized growth rate of 14.0%. On this basis, the company's PEG ratio is 1.9. This suggests that these shares are overvalued. Furthermore, Expedia is likely overvalued compared to the book value of its equity, since its P/B ratio of 33.67 is higher than the sector average of 2.93. The company's shares are currently trading 374.2% below their Graham number. Ultimately, Expedia's strong cash flows, decent earnings multiple, and healthy debt levels factor towards it being fairly valued, its elevated P/B ratio notwithstanding.

There's an Analyst Consensus of Little Upside Potential for Expedia:

The 33 analysts following Expedia have set target prices ranging from $168.0 to $290.0 per share, for an average of $225.06 with a buy rating. The company is trading 0.5% away from its average target price, indicating that there is an analyst consensus of little upside potential.

Expedia has an average amount of shares sold short because 6.1% of the company's shares are sold short. Institutions own 102.4% of the company's shares, and the insider ownership rate stands at 1.15%, suggesting a large amount of insider shareholders. The largest shareholder is Vanguard Group Inc, whose 13% stake in the company is worth $3,460,609,371.

The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.

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