Now trading at a price of $148.1, Vistra has moved -7.4% so far today.
Vistra returned gains of 333.8% last year, with its stock price reaching a high of $168.67 and a low of $36.48. Over the same period, the stock outperformed the S&P 500 index by 302.0%. More recently, the company's 50-day average price was $137.1. Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. Based in Irving, TX, the Large-Cap Utilities company has 4,870 full time employees. Vistra has offered a 0.5% dividend yield over the last 12 months.
The Company May Be Profitable, but Its Balance Sheet Is Highly Leveraged:
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (M) | $9,144 | $11,809 | $11,443 | $12,077 | $13,728 | $14,779 |
| Operating Margins | 5% | 17% | 13% | -13% | -9% | 18% |
| Net Margins | -1% | 8% | 6% | -11% | -9% | 10% |
| Net Income (M) | -$54 | $928 | $636 | -$1,274 | -$1,227 | $1,493 |
| Net Interest Expense (M) | $572 | $797 | $630 | $384 | $368 | $740 |
| Depreciation & Amort. (M) | $1,394 | $1,640 | $1,737 | $1,753 | $1,596 | $1,502 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 505 | 500 | 491 | 482 | 422 | 375 |
| Earnings Per Share | -$0.11 | $1.86 | $1.3 | -$2.69 | -$3.26 | $3.58 |
| Free Cash Flow (M) | $941 | $2,023 | $2,078 | -$1,239 | -$816 | $3,777 |
| CAPEX (M) | $530 | $713 | $1,259 | $1,033 | $1,301 | $1,676 |
| Total Debt (M) | $21,748 | $20,204 | $18,470 | $20,954 | $23,866 | $24,232 |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 11.2 | 5.48 | 5.55 | 82.47 | 55.87 | 4.98 |
| Current Ratio | 0.95 | 0.9 | 1.13 | 1.35 | 1.08 | 1.18 |
Vistra has growing revenues and increasing reinvestment in the business, decent operating margins with a positive growth rate, and positive cash flows. However, the firm has a highly leveraged balance sheet. Finally, we note that Vistra has just enough current assets to cover current liabilities, as shown by its current ratio of 1.18.
Vistra's Valuation Is in Line With Its Sector Averages:
Vistra has a trailing twelve month P/E ratio of 25.8, compared to an average of 20.52 for the Utilities sector. Based on its EPS guidance of $6.9, the company has a forward P/E ratio of 19.9. According to the 81.0% compound average growth rate of Vistra's historical and projected earnings per share, the company's PEG ratio is 0.32. Taking the weighted average of the company's EPS CAGR and the broader market's 5-year projected EPS growth rate, we obtain a normalized growth rate of 26.4%. On this basis, the company's PEG ratio is 0.98. This suggests that its shares are undervalued. In contrast, Vistra is likely overvalued compared to the book value of its equity, since its P/B ratio of 17.02 is higher than the sector average of 2.2. The company's shares are currently trading 338.8% below their Graham number. Ultimately, Vistra's strong cash flows, decent earnings multiple, and healthy debt levels factor towards it being fairly valued, its elevated P/B ratio notwithstanding.
Vistra Has an Average Rating of Buy:
The 15 analysts following Vistra have set target prices ranging from $52.0 to $231.0 per share, for an average of $157.46 with a buy rating. The company is trading -5.9% away from its average target price, indicating that there is an analyst consensus of some upside potential.
Vistra has an average amount of shares sold short because 3.0% of the company's shares are sold short. Institutions own 89.8% of the company's shares, and the insider ownership rate stands at 0.63%, suggesting a small amount of insider investors. The largest shareholder is Vanguard Group Inc, whose 13% stake in the company is worth $6,477,930,788.
