Fortive (FTV) stock climbed 0.5 % this evening. According to our metrics, the company seems overvalued at today's prices. In the below analysis, we will put Fortive's valuation in the context of its mixed growth prospects and mixed market sentiment, which are also strong drivers for share price.
Fortive Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and services professional and engineered products, software, and services worldwide. The large-cap Industrials company is based in Everett, United States and has 18,000 full time employees.
FTV Has a Higher P/E Ratio Than the Sector Average
Compared to the Industrials sector's average of 22.19, Fortive has a trailing twelve month price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.7 and an expected P/E ratio of 19.0. The P/E ratios are calculated by dividing the company's share price by its trailing 12 month of $2.33 or forward earnings per share of $3.65.
Earnings represent the net profits left over after subtracting costs of goods sold, taxes, and operating costs from the company's recorded sales revenue. One way of looking at the P/E ratio is that it represents how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar's worth of the company's earnings. Since Fortive's P/E ratio is higher than its sector average of 22.19, we can deduce that the market is overvaluing the company's earnings.
Fortive Is Overvalued in Terms of Expected Growth
Fortive's PEG ratio is 2.95. This metric represents the company's earnings per share divided by its expected growth ratio, and is a useful complement to the price to earnings analysis, because it factors in growth to the valuation. A PEG ratio around or below 1 implies that the market in fairly valuing the company in terms of its growth estimates. But when the PEG ratio is higher, as in Fortive's case, it tells us the company is overvalued.
FTV Has an Average P/B Ratio
Traditionally, stock pickers used to focus primarily on finding issues that were trading significantly below their tangible asset value, to guarantee themselves a margin of safety. But such an approach would screen out many valuable securities because many profitable businesses -- especially those that heavily leverage information technology -- simply do not have many tangible assets compared to more capital intensive companies.
Therefore, modern value investors tend to focus less on absolute price to book value (P/B) ratios. Instead of singling out stocks with a P/B ratio of less than 1, they will compare the target company against its peer group. For Fortive, the P/B value is 2.42 while the average for the Industrials sector is 4.06.
FTV's Weak Cash Flow Generation Is Troubling
The table below shows that Fortive is not generating enough cash. A well run company will generally have cash flows that reflect the strength of its underlying business, and in Fortive's case, free cash flow is growing at an average rate of -0.2% with a coefficient of variability of 1410.6%. We can also see that cash flows from operations are evolving at a 0.3% rate, versus 7.8%:
| Date Reported | Cash Flow from Operations ($ k) | Capital expenditures ($ k) | Free Cash Flow ($ k) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1,371,000 | 109,800 | 1,261,200 | 4.46 |
| 2022 | 1,303,200 | 95,800 | 1,207,400 | 28.05 |
| 2021 | 992,900 | 50,000 | 942,900 | -30.72 |
| 2020 | 1,436,700 | 75,700 | 1,361,000 | 13.71 |
| 2019 | 1,271,400 | 74,500 | 1,196,900 | -6.09 |
| 2018 | 1,344,400 | 69,900 | 1,274,500 |
Fortive's Margins Are Strong
If you buy a stock for the long run, you want the underlying business model to be profitable. Gross margins tell you how much profit the company generates compared to the cost of revenue, which is the cost directly related to providing Fortive's goods and services. Operating margins, on the other hand, tell you how much of these profits the company keeps after you take overhead into account.
Fortive's Gross Margins
| Date Reported | Revenue ($ k) | Cost of Revenue ($ k) | Gross Margins (%) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 6,011,500 | 2,472,400 | 59 | 3.51 |
| 2022 | 5,825,700 | 2,462,300 | 57 | 1.79 |
| 2021 | 5,254,700 | 2,247,600 | 56 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | 4,634,400 | 2,025,900 | 56 | 3.7 |
| 2019 | 4,563,900 | 2,080,700 | 54 | -5.26 |
| 2018 | 3,800,400 | 1,614,200 | 57 |
Fortive's Operating Margins
| Date Reported | Total Revenue ($ k) | Operating Expenses ($ k) | Operating Margins (%) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 6,011,500 | 2,025,000 | 19 | 11.76 |
| 2022 | 5,825,700 | 1,956,600 | 17 | 13.33 |
| 2021 | 5,254,700 | 1,839,500 | 15 | -54.55 |
| 2020 | 4,634,400 | 1,748,400 | 33 | 230.0 |
| 2019 | 4,563,900 | 1,719,000 | 10 | -41.18 |
| 2018 | 3,800,400 | 1,262,800 | 17 |
Fortive's cost of revenue is growing at a rate of 7.4% in contrast to None% for operating expenses. Sales revenues, on the other hand, have experienced a 7.9% growth rate. As a result, the average gross margins growth is 0.5 and the average operating margins growth rate is 1.4, with coefficients of variability of 6.5% and 621.1% respectively.
Fortive Benefits From Positive Market Signals
The market sentiment regarding Fortive is overwhelmingly positive. The stock has an average rating of buy and target prices ranging from $90.0 to $66.0. FTV is trading -10.82% away from its target price of $77.71. 0.8% of the company's shares are tied to short positions, and 97.1% of the shares are held by institutional investors.
| Date Reported | Holder | Percentage | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-30 | Vanguard Group Inc | 11% | 39,218,267 | $2,717,826,022 |
| 2023-09-30 | T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | 10% | 35,195,693 | $2,439,061,632 |
| 2023-09-30 | Blackrock Inc. | 9% | 31,811,672 | $2,204,548,966 |
| 2023-09-30 | Wellington Management Group, LLP | 5% | 19,092,535 | $1,323,112,733 |
| 2023-09-30 | FMR, LLC | 4% | 15,739,254 | $1,090,730,350 |
| 2023-09-30 | Royal Bank of Canada | 4% | 14,838,347 | $1,028,297,492 |
| 2023-09-30 | State Street Corporation | 4% | 13,368,703 | $926,451,158 |
| 2023-09-30 | Flossbach von Storch AG | 3% | 10,595,464 | $734,265,687 |
| 2023-09-30 | Viking Global Investors, L.P. | 2% | 8,325,095 | $576,929,108 |
| 2023-09-30 | Geode Capital Management, LLC | 2% | 7,583,755 | $525,554,244 |
