It's been a strong day for agilon health inc.. Its shares are now trading at $25.38, marking a 6.9% change since the previous market close. An analyst favorite, the Medical Distribution company has a rating of buy. But could the market and the analyst community be overvaluing this stock?
The most common valuation metric for stocks is the trailing price to earnings (P/E) ratio. agilon health inc. has a P/E ratio of -110.3 based on its 12 month trailing earnings per share of $-0.23. Considering its future earnings estimates of $0.15 per share, the stock's forward P/E ratio is 169.2. In comparison, the average P/E ratio of the Health Care sector is 24.45 and the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 15.97.
agilon health inc.'s P/E ratio tells us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of the company's earnings. The problem with this metric is that it doesn't take into account the expected growth in earnings of the stock. Sometimes elevated P/E ratios can be justified by equally elevated growth expectations.
We can solve this inconsistency by dividing the company's trailing P/E ratio by its five year earnings growth estimate, which in this case gives us a 0.33 Price to Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio. In AGL's case, the elevated P/E ratio is justified by future earnings growth estimates -- assuming those estimates turn out to be close to reality.
We can also compare the ratio of agilon health inc.'s market price to its book value, which gives us the price to book, or P/B ratio. A company's book value refers to its present liquidation value -- or what would be left if the company sold off all its assets and paid off all of its debts today. AGL has a P/B ratio of 10.1, with any figure close to or below one indicating a potentially undervalued company.
A comparison of the share price versus company earnings and book value should be balanced by an analysis of the company's ability to pay its liabilities. One popular metric is the Quick Ratio, or Acid Test, which is the company's current assets minus its inventory and prepaid expenses divided by its current liabilities. agilon health inc.'s quick ratio is 2.629. Generally speaking, a quick ratio above 1 signifies that the company is able to meet its liabilities.
The last factor we will review in our value analysis of agilon health inc. is its levered free cash flow, which is negative at $nan. The levered free cash flow represents the sum of all of the company's inflows and outflows of capital in the last quarter. A negative value means that agilon health inc. has no cash left over to re-invest in the business or to pay equity investors in the form of a dividend.
By most metrics, agilon health inc. is an overvalued stock. So why are analysts giving it such a generous rating? It probably has to do with their perception of its strong growth potential, as represented by its low PEG ratio. For growth-oriented investors, AGL is represents an interesting opportunity despite its elevated valuation. They just need to be sure that the growth story will come true. We will continue to monitor the stock to see which thesis prevails.