LNN

Here's Why Lindsay (LNN) Is a Defensive Stock According to the Graham Test

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery firm Lindsay is one of the rare companies that fulfills most of Graham’s requirements for a defensive high-quality stock.

At Market Inference, we adhere to Benjamin Graham’s view that precise forecasting of a company’s prospects is highly uncertain. Investing with a wide margin of safety, determined on the basis of the company’s historical track record, offers far greater chances of positive investment results.

Lindsay Is Probably Overvalued

Graham devised the below equation to give investors a quick way of determining whether a stock is trading at a fair multiple of its earnings and its assets:

√(22.5 * 6 year average earnings per share (2.94) * 6 year average book value per share (39.676) = $69.04

At today's price of $130.13 per share, Lindsay is now trading 88.5% above the maximum price that Graham would have wanted to pay for the stock.

Even though the stock does not trade at an attractive multiple, it might still meet some of the other criteria for quality stocks that Graham listed in Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor.

Impressive Revenues, Consistent Profitability, and a Growing Dividend Imply Value

Lindsay’s average sales revenue over the last 6 years has been $951.37 Million, so by Graham’s standards the stock has sufficient revenues to make it worthy of investment. When published in 1972, Graham’s threshold was $100 million in average sales, which would be the equivalent of around a half million dollars today.

Ben Graham believed that a margin of safety could be obtained by investing only in companies with consistently positive retained earnings. Retained earnings represent the cumulative net earnings or (deficit) left to equity holders after dividends have been paid out. Lindsay had positive retained earnings from 2011 to 2022 with an average of $455.39 Million over this period.

Ben Graham would also require a cumulative growth of Earnings Per Share of at least 30% over the last ten years.To determine Lindsay's EPS growth over time, we will average out its EPS for 2010, 2011, and 2012, which were $0.34, $0.23, and $1.15 respectively. This gives us an average of $0.57 for the period of 2010 to 2012. Next, we compare this value with the average EPS reported in 2020, 2021, and 2022, which were $3.56, $3.88, and $5.94, for an average of $4.46. Now we see that Lindsay's EPS growth was 682.46% during this period, which satisfies Ben Graham's requirement.

Lindsay’s Balance Sheet Meets Graham’s Criteria

It was also essential to Graham that the company’s current assets outweigh its current liabilities, and that its long term debt be inferior to the sum of its net current assets (current assets minus total liabilities). This is the aspect of the analysis that most companies fail, yet Lindsay passes comfortably, with an average current ratio of 3.0, and average debt to net current asset ratio of 0.7.

Conclusion

Graham is best known for the Graham number valuation method, and his net-net strategy of investing in a broad portfolio of companies that trade below their net current asset value. But these approaches are too narrow, and fail to capture the full scope of Graham’s statistical approach to stock picking.

Lindsay offers a rare combination of value, growth, and profitability. So it comes as no surprise that the company isn’t cheap enough to meet Graham’s definition of a net-net, and that it does not trade, on average, far below its Graham number. Rather, Lindsay is an interesting company because it meets Graham’s broader definition of quality.

2017-10-13 2018-10-24 2019-10-31 2020-10-22 2021-10-21 2022-10-20
Revenue (k) $517,985 $547,705 $444,072 $474,692 $567,646 $770,743
Gross Margins 28.0% 28.0% 26.0% 32.0% 26.0% 26.0%
Operating Margins 8% 7% 1% 11% 10% 12%
Net Margins 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 8.0% 7.0% 8.0%
Net Income (k) $23,179 $20,277 $2,172 $38,629 $42,572 $65,469
Net Interest Expense (k) -$3,579 -$3,047 -$2,365 -$2,803 -$3,668 -$3,647
Depreciation & Amort. (k) -$16,678 -$16,514 -$14,018 -$19,396 -$19,177 -$20,178
Earnings Per Share $2.17 $1.88 $0.2 $3.56 $3.86 $5.94
EPS Growth n/a -13.36% -89.36% 1680.0% 8.43% 53.89%
Diluted Shares (k) 10,694 10,772 10,810 10,861 11,026 11,031
Free Cash Flow (k) $48,312 $44,988 $27,008 $63,524 $70,479 $18,643
Capital Expenditures -$8,863 -$11,054 -$23,211 -$17,490 -$26,511 -$15,595
Net Current Assets (k) $56,957 $107,661 $81,385 $75,927 $117,363 $159,806
Long Term Debt (k) $116,775 $116,570 $115,846 $115,682 $115,514 $115,341
Net Debt / EBITDA -0.08 -0.79 -0.55 -0.34 -0.42 -0.01
The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.

ON FOCUS