Molina Healthcare does not have the profile of a defensive investment based on the requirements of Ben Graham. The Medical Specialities firm may nonetheless be of interest to more risk-oriented investors who have a solid thesis on the company's future growth. At Market Inference, we remain agnostic as to such further developments, and prefer to use a company's past track record as the bellwether for future potential gains.
Molina Healthcare Is Probably Overvalued
Graham devised the below equation to give investors a quick way of determining whether a stock is trading at a fair multiple of its earnings and its assets:
√(22.5 * 6 year average earnings per share (8.18) * 6 year average book value per share (62.431) = $124.24
At today's price of $323.53 per share, Molina Healthcare is now trading 160.4% above the maximum price that Graham would have wanted to pay for the stock.
Even though the stock does not trade at an attractive multiple, it might still meet some of the other criteria for quality stocks that Graham listed in Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor.
Positive Retained Earnings From 2010 To 2022, No Dividend Record, and Eps Growth In Excess Of Graham'S Requirements
Ben Graham wrote that an investment in a company with a record of positive retained earnings could contribute significantly to the margin of safety. Molina Healthcare had positive retained earnings from 2010 to 2022 with an average of $1.1 Billion over this period.
Another one of Graham's requirements is for a 30% or more cumulative growth rate of the company's earnings per share over the last ten years.To determine Molina Healthcare's EPS growth over time, we will average out its EPS for 2009, 2010, and 2011, which were $0.79, $0.39, and $0.45 respectively. This gives us an average of $0.54 for the period of 2009 to 2011. Next, we compare this value with the average EPS reported in 2020, 2021, and 2022, which were $11.23, $11.25, and $13.55, for an average of $12.01. Now we see that Molina Healthcare's EPS growth was 2124.07% during this period, which satisfies Ben Graham's requirement.
We have no record of Molina Healthcare offering a regular dividend.
Too Much Debt and an Average Current Ratio
Graham sought companies with extremely low debt levels compared to their assets. For one, he expected their current ratio to be over 2 and their long term debt to net current asset ratio to be near, or ideally under, under 1. Molina Healthcare fails on both counts with a current ratio of 1.5 and a debt to net current asset ratio of 3.0.
Conclusion
According to Graham's analysis, Molina Healthcare is likely a company of average quality, which does not offer a significant enough margin of safety for a risk averse investor.
| 2018-03-01 | 2019-02-19 | 2020-02-14 | 2021-02-16 | 2022-02-14 | 2023-02-13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (MM) | $19,883 | $18,890 | $16,829 | $19,423 | $27,771 | $31,974 |
| Gross Margins | 12.0% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Operating Margins | 1% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
| Net Margins | -3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Net Income (MM) | -$512 | $707 | $737 | $673 | $659 | $792 |
| Net Interest Expense (MM) | -$118 | -$115 | -$87 | -$102 | -$120 | -$110 |
| Depreciation & Amort. (MM) | -$178 | -$127 | -$89 | -$88 | -$131 | -$176 |
| Earnings Per Share | -$9.08 | $10.62 | $11.52 | $11.22 | $11.26 | $13.54 |
| EPS Growth | n/a | 216.96% | 8.47% | -2.6% | 0.36% | 20.25% |
| Diluted Shares (MM) | 56 | 67 | 64 | 60 | 58 | 58 |
| Free Cash Flow (MM) | $890 | -$284 | $491 | $1,972 | $2,196 | $864 |
| Capital Expenditures (MM) | -$86 | -$30 | -$57 | -$74 | -$77 | -$91 |
| Net Current Assets (MM) | $377 | $955 | $1,140 | $440 | $485 | $734 |
| Long Term Debt (MM) | $1,516 | $1,217 | $1,468 | $2,127 | $2,173 | $2,176 |
