DG

Analyzing the Bullish Outlook for Dollar General (DG)


Most analysts love Dollar General, which has an average rating of buy. But there's reason to believe the stock may be overvalued at today's price of $143.55 per share. Let's look at the fundamentals ourselves and see if we reach a different conclusion than the analyst community.

Dollar General has a P/E ratio of 19.0 based on its 12 month trailing earnings per share of $7.55. Considering its future earnings estimates of $8.27 per share, the stock's forward P/E ratio is 17.4. In comparison, the average P/E ratio of the Consumer Discretionary sector is 22.96 and the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 15.97.

Dollar General's P/E ratio tells us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of the company's earnings. The problem with this metric is that it doesn't take into account the expected growth in earnings of the stock. Sometimes elevated P/E ratios can be justified by equally elevated growth expectations.

We can solve this inconsistency by dividing the company's trailing P/E ratio by its five year earnings growth estimate, which in this case gives us a -37.44 Price to Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio. Since the PEG ratio is negative, the company's lofty valuation is not justified by its growth levels.

We can also compare the ratio of Dollar General's market price to its book value, which gives us the price to book, or P/B ratio. A company's book value refers to its present equity value -- or what is left over when we subtract its liabilities from its assets. DG has a P/B ratio of 4.67, with any figure close to or below one indicating a potentially undervalued company.

A comparison of the share price versus company earnings and book value should be balanced by an analysis of the company's ability to pay its liabilities. One popular metric is the Quick Ratio, or Acid Test, which is the company's current assets minus its inventory and prepaid expenses divided by its current liabilities. Dollar General's quick ratio is 0.097. Generally speaking, a quick ratio above 1 signifies that the company is able to meet its liabilities.

The final element of our analysis will touch on Dollar General's ability to generate cash for the benefit of its shareholders or for reinvesting in the business. For this, we look at the company's levered free cash flow, which is the sum of all incoming and outgoing cash flows, including the servicing of current debt and liabilities. Dollar General has a free cash flow of $691.58 Million, which it uses to pay its shareholders a 1.6% dividend.

With most indicators pointing at a higher than average valuation with uncertain growth prospects, most analysts are either wrong about Dollar General, or their research has uncovered one or more qualitative reasons to invest in the stock. For example, the strength of the management team and their plan for executing the business strategy may have convinced some analysts to give less weight to traditional quantitative factors.

The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.

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