Short Report on Progressive Stock

Now trading at a price of $136.31, Progressive has moved 1.0% so far today. In contrast, the S&P 500 index moved -1.1%. Read below for a basic value analysis of Progressive.

Progressive shares moved 25.0% over the last 52 weeks, with a high of $139.18 and a low of $100.81. During this time, the stock outperformed the S&P 500 index by 32.7%. As of January 2022, the company's 50-day average price is $131.0. The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. The large-cap Financial Services company is based in Mayfield, OH. Progressive has returned a 0.3% dividend yield over the last 12 months.

a Steady Stream of Strong Cash Flows with an Upwards Trend:

2019-12-31 2020-12-31 2021-12-31
Revenue (MM) $38,998 $42,638 $47,676
Revenue Growth n/a 9.33% 11.82%
Net Margins 10.18% 13.38% 7.03%
Net Margins Growth n/a 31.43% -47.46%
Earnings Per Share $6.72 $9.66 $5.66
EPS Growth n/a 43.75% -41.41%
Free Cash Flow (MM) $5,898 $6,682 $7,518
FCF Growth n/a 13.29% 12.51%
Capital Expenditures (MM) -$364 -$224 -$244
LT Debt to Equity 0.3 0.33 0.28

Progressive Is Currently Fairly Valued:

Compared to the Financial Services sector's average of 13.34, Progressive has a trailing twelve month P/E ratio of 115.5 and, according to its EPS guidance of 7.72, an expected P/E ratio of 17.7. Progressive's PEG ratio is 8.89 based on its 13.0% annual average growth rate of historical and projected earnings per share. This suggests that the company's shares are overvalued.

Progressive's P/B ratio is 5.0 compared to its sector average of 1.95. The company is likely overvalued in terms of its net asset value. The company's shares are currently trading 103.4% above their fair value as expressed by Benjamin Graham's formula:

√(22.5 * 3-year average EPS * book value per share) = √(22.5 * 7.35 * 27.169) = $67.03

Progressive's strong cash flow trend and reasonable levels of debt attenuate the company's lofty valuation in terms of earnings and assets.

Progressive Is the Subject of Mixed Market Indicators:

15 analysts are following Progressive and have set target prices ranging from $111 to $174 per share. On average, they have given the company a rating of hold. At the current price of $136.31, PGR is trading -2.03% away from its average analyst target price of $139.13 per share, implying an analyst consensus of some upside potential for the stock.

The company has a very low short interest since 0.5% of the company's shares are tied to short positions. Institutions own 86.5% of Progressive's shares, while the insider ownership rate stands at 0.31%. The biggest shareholder is the Vanguard Group, Inc. with a 9% stake in the company worth approximately $6,800,001,840.

The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.