KDP

Analyzing Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) from Benjamin Graham's Perspective

Keurig Dr Pepper does not have the profile of a defensive investment based on the requirements of Ben Graham. The Beverages firm may nonetheless be of interest to more risk-oriented investors who have a solid thesis on the company's future growth. At Market Inference, we remain agnostic as to such further developments, and prefer to use a company's past track record as the bellwether for future potential gains.

Keurig Dr Pepper Is Probably Overvalued

Graham devised the below equation to give investors a quick way of determining whether a stock is trading at a fair multiple of its earnings and its assets:

√(22.5 * 6 year average earnings per share (1.79) * 6 year average book value per share (18.088) = $19.99

At today's price of $33.2 per share, Keurig Dr Pepper is now trading 66.1% above the maximum price that Graham would have wanted to pay for the stock.

Even though the stock does not trade at an attractive multiple, it might still meet some of the other criteria for quality stocks that Graham listed in Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor.

Impressive Revenues, Consistent Profitability, and a Growing Dividend Imply Value

Keurig Dr Pepper’s average sales revenue over the last 6 years has been $14.74 Billion, so by Graham’s standards the stock has sufficient revenues to make it worthy of investment. When published in 1972, Graham’s threshold was $100 million in average sales, which would be the equivalent of around a half million dollars today.

Ben Graham believed that a margin of safety could be obtained by investing only in companies with consistently positive retained earnings. Retained earnings represent the cumulative net earnings or (deficit) left to equity holders after dividends have been paid out. Keurig Dr Pepper had positive retained earnings from 2009 to 2022 with an average of $1.72 Billion over this period.

Ben Graham would also require a cumulative growth of Earnings Per Share of at least 30% over the last ten years.To determine Keurig Dr Pepper's EPS growth over time, we will average out its EPS for 2008, 2009, and 2010, which were $-1.23, $0.44, and $2.17 respectively. This gives us an average of $0.46 for the period of 2008 to 2010. Next, we compare this value with the average EPS reported in 2020, 2021, and 2022, which were $0.30, $1.50, and $1.01, for an average of $0.94. Now we see that Keurig Dr Pepper's EPS growth was 104.35% during this period, which satisfies Ben Graham's requirement.

Negative Current Asset to Liabilities Balance and Not Enough Current Assets to Cover Current Liabilities

Graham sought companies with extremely low debt levels compared to their assets. For one, he expected their current ratio to be over 2 and their long term debt to net current asset ratio to be near, or ideally under, under 1. Keurig Dr Pepper fails on both counts with a current ratio of 0.5 and a debt to net current asset ratio of -0.5.

Conclusion

According to Graham's analysis, Keurig Dr Pepper is likely a company of average quality, which does not offer a significant enough margin of safety for a risk averse investor.

2018-08-07 2019-02-28 2020-02-27 2021-02-25 2022-02-24 2023-02-23
Revenue (MM) $6,690 $7,442 $11,120 $11,618 $12,683 $14,057
Gross Margins 60.0% 52.0% 56.0% 56.0% 55.0% 52.0%
Operating Margins 21% 17% 21% 22% 23% 20%
Net Margins 16.0% 8.0% 11.0% 11.0% 17.0% 10.0%
Net Income (MM) $1,076 $586 $1,254 $1,325 $2,146 $1,436
Net Interest Expense (MM) -$161 -$452 -$654 -$604 -$500 -$693
Depreciation & Amort. (MM) -$198 -$354 -$484 -$495 -$544 -$537
Earnings Per Share $5.89 $0.53 $0.88 $0.93 $1.5 $1.01
EPS Growth n/a -91.0% 66.04% 5.68% 61.29% -32.67%
Diluted Shares (MM) 183 1,098 1,419 1,422 1,428 1,428
Free Cash Flow (MM) $1,243 $1,790 $2,592 $2,770 $3,207 $3,048
Capital Expenditures (MM) -$205 -$177 -$118 -$314 -$333 -$211
Net Current Assets (MM) -$7,025 -$24,226 -$23,988 -$23,561 -$22,569 -$22,908
Long Term Debt (MM) $3,161 $14,201 $12,827 $11,143 $11,578 $11,072
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.08 9.79 5.01 4.36 3.29 3.44
The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.

ON FOCUS