# Don't Buy Dollar Tree (DLTR) Before Checking its Graham Number!

Many investors turn to Benjamin Graham's so-called “Graham number” to calculate the fair price of a stock. The Graham number is √(22.5 * 5 year average earnings per share * book value per share), which for Dollar Tree gives us a fair price of \$77.72. In comparison, the stock’s market price is \$106.75 per share. Therefore, Dollar Tree’s market price exceeds the upper bound that a prudent investor would pay for its shares by 37.4%.

The Graham number is often used in isolation, but in fact it is only one part of a check list for choosing defensive stocks that he laid out in Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor. The analysis requires us to look at the following fundamentals of Dollar Tree:

Sales Revenue Should Be No Less Than \$500 million

For Dollar Tree, average sales revenue over the last 6 years has been \$33.58 Billion, so in the context of the Graham analysis the stock has impressive sales revenue. Originally the threshold was \$100 million, but since the book was published in the 1970s it's necessary to adjust the figure for inflation.

Current Assets Should Be at Least Twice Current Liabilities

We calculate Dollar Tree's current ratio by dividing its total current assets of \$6.37 Billion by its total current liabilities of \$4.23 Billion. Current assets refer to company assets that can be transferred into cash within one year, such as accounts receivable, inventory, and liquid financial instruments. Current liabilities, on the other hand, refer to those that will come due within one year. Dollar Tree’s current assets outweigh its current liabilities by a factor of 1.5 only.

The Company’s Long-term Debt Should Not Exceed its Net Current Assets

This means that its ratio of debt to net current assets should be 1 or less. Since Dollar Tree’s debt ratio is -0.4, the company has much more liabilities than current assets. We calculate Dollar Tree’s debt to net current assets ratio by dividing its total long term of debt of \$3.42 Billion by its current assets minus total liabilities of \$14.27 Billion.

The Stock Should Have a Positive Level of Retained Earnings Over Several Years

Dollar Tree had positive retained earnings from 2010 to 2023 with an average of \$3.23 Billion. Retained earnings are the sum of the current and previous reporting periods' net asset amounts, minus all dividend payments. It's a similar metric to free cash flow, with the difference that retained earnings are accounted for on an accrual basis.

There Should Be a Record of Uninterrupted Dividend Payments Over the Last 20 Years

We have no record of Dollar Tree offering a regular dividend within the last twenty years.

A Minimum Increase of at Least One-third in Earnings per Share (EPS) Over the Past 10 Years

To determine Dollar Tree's EPS growth over time, we will average out its EPS for 2009, 2010, and 2011, which were \$0.51, \$0.73, and \$0.43 respectively. This gives us an average of \$0.56 for the period of 2009 to 2011. Next, we compare this value with the average EPS reported in 2021, 2022, and 2023, which were \$2.13, \$5.80, and \$7.21, for an average of \$5.05. Now we see that Dollar Tree's EPS growth was 801.79% during this period, which satisfies Ben Graham's requirement.

It may be trading far above its fair value, but Dollar Tree actually satisfies some of the criteria Benjamin Graham used for identifying for an undervalued stock because it has:

• impressive sales revenue
• just enough current assets to cover current liabilities
• much more liabilities than current assets
• positive retained earnings from 2010 to 2023
• no dividend record
• EPS growth in excess of Graham's requirements
The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and was performed on the basis of publicly available data. It is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any buy, sell, or other recommendations mentioned in the article are direct quotations of consensus recommendations from the analysts covering the stock, and do not represent the opinions of Market Inference or its writers. Past performance, accounting data, and inferences about market position and corporate valuation are not reliable indicators of future price movements. Market Inference does not provide financial advice. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision.