Walgreens Boots Alliance is currently trading at $22.34 per share and has a Graham number of $62.92, which implies that it is -64.5% below its fair value. We calculate the Graham number as follows:
√(22.5 * 5 year average earnings per share * book value per share) = √(22.5 * 3.6 * 24.399) = 62.92
The Graham number is one of seven factors that Graham enumerates in Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor for determining whether a stock offers a margin of safety. Rather than use the Graham number by itself, its best to consider it alongside the following fundamental metrics:
Sales Revenue Should Be No Less Than $500 million
For Walgreens Boots Alliance, average sales revenue over the last 6 years has been $175.7 Billion, so in the context of the Graham analysis the stock has impressive sales revenue. Originally the threshold was $100 million, but since the book was published in the 1970s it's necessary to adjust the figure for inflation.
Current Assets Should Be at Least Twice Current Liabilities
We calculate Walgreens Boots Alliance's current ratio by dividing its total current assets of $16.9 Billion by its total current liabilities of $22.58 Billion. Current assets refer to company assets that can be transferred into cash within one year, such as accounts receivable, inventory, and liquid financial instruments. Current liabilities, on the other hand, refer to those that will come due within one year. Walgreens Boots Alliance’s current liabilities are actually greater than its current assets, since its current ratio is only 0.8.
The Company’s Long-term Debt Should Not Exceed its Net Current Assets
This means that its ratio of debt to net current assets should be 1 or less. Since Walgreens Boots Alliance’s debt ratio is -0.8, the company has much more liabilities than current assets. We calculate Walgreens Boots Alliance’s debt to net current assets ratio by dividing its total long term of debt of $32.13 Billion by its current assets minus total liabilities of $59.72 Billion.
The Stock Should Have a Positive Level of Retained Earnings Over Several Years
Walgreens Boots Alliance had positive retained earnings from 2014 to 2022 with an average of $31.3 Billion. Retained earnings are the sum of the current and previous reporting periods' net asset amounts, minus all dividend payments. It's a similar metric to free cash flow, with the difference that retained earnings are accounted for on an accrual basis.
There Should Be a Record of Uninterrupted Dividend Payments Over the Last 20 Years
Walgreens Boots Alliance has offered a regular dividend since at least 2013. The company has returned an average dividend yield of 4.2% over the last five years.
A Minimum Increase of at Least One-third in Earnings per Share (EPS) Over the Past 10 Years
Walgreens Boots Alliance's earnings per share growth will be calculated using the average EPS of the years 2013, 2014, and 2015, and the average of the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. For the years starting in 2013, we have EPS values of $0.75, $0.89, and $1.01, which give us an average of $0.88. From 2020 to the present, we have EPS values of $-0.36, $4.13, and $-0.48, which average out to $1.10. The growth rate between the two averages is 25.0%, which falls short of Graham's 30% requirement while remaining positive.
Based on the above analysis, we can conclude that Walgreens Boots Alliance meets most of Benjamin Graham's criteria for an undervalued stock because it is trading far below its fair value and has:
- impressive sales revenue
- not enough current assets to cover current liabilities
- much more liabilities than current assets
- positive retained earnings from 2014 to 2022
- an acceptable record of dividends
- some EPS growth
