With an average analyst rating of hold, Moderna is clearly not a favorite. But some of the best stock picks are contrarian in nature. With most analysts more focused on growth than on value, a mediocre analyst rating does not necessarily mean a stock is a bad investment. So what do we know about MRNA's valuation?
Let's start our value analysis with the price to book (P/B) ratio. This is perhaps the most basic measure of a company's valuation, which is its market value divided by its book value. Book value refers to the sum of all of the company's tangible assets minus its liabilities -- you can also think of it as the company's equity value.
Traditionally, value investors would look for companies with a ratio of less than 1 (meaning that the market value was smaller than the company's book value), but such opportunities are very rare these days. So we tend to look for company's whose valuations are less than their sector and market average. The P/B ratio for Moderna is 2.18, compared to its sector average of 4.16 and the S&P500's average P/B of 2.95.
The most common metric for valuing a company is its Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio. It's simply today's stock price of 97.14 divided by either its trailing or forward earnings, which for Moderna are $11.63 and $-5.21 respectively. Based on these values, the company's trailing P/E ratio is 8.4 and its forward P/E ratio is -18.6. By way of comparison, the average P/E ratio of the Health Care sector is 24.45 and the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 15.97.
The problem with P/E ratios is that they don't take into account the growth of earnings. This means that a company with a higher than average P/E ratio may still be undervalued if it has extremely high projected earnings growth. Conversely, a company with a low P/E ratio may not present a good value if its projected earnings are stagnant.
When we divide Moderna's P/E ratio by its projected 5 year earnings growth rate, we obtain its Price to Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.48. A PEG ratio of 1 or less may indicate the company is undervalued in terms of its growth potential. On the other hand, a PEG ratio higher than 1 could indicate that investors are paying too high a premium for these growth levels. Bear in mind, however, that the 5 year earnings growth estimate could very well be an over or underestimate!
Indebted or mismanaged companies can't sustain shareholder value for long, even if they have strong earnings. For this reason, considering Moderna's ability to meet its debt obligations is an important aspect of its valuation. By adding up its current assets, then subtracting its inventory and prepaid expenses, and then dividing the whole by its current liabilities, we obtain the company's Quick Ratio of 2.916. Since MRNA's quick ratio is higher than 1, its total liquid assets are sufficient to meets its current liabilities.
When we had up all the inflows and outflows of cash, including payments to creditors, we obtain Moderna's levered free cash flow of $4.58 Billion. This represents the money left over from the company's operations that is available for reinvestment in the business, or for paying out to equity investors in the form of a dividend. Despite its positive cash flows, Moderna does not currently pay a dividend.
Are analysts missing the big picture on Moderna? Or did they unearth some damning information to consider about the company that trumps the stock's strong valuation and growth potential?
