Mondelez International (MDLZ) stock climbed 0.5 % this evening. According to our metrics, the company seems overvalued at today's prices. In the below analysis, we will put Mondelez International's valuation in the context of its strong growth indicators and mixed market sentiment, which are also strong drivers for share price.
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The large-cap Consumer Staples company is based in Chicago, United States and has 91,000 full time employees.
MDLZ's P/E Ratio Is Comparable to its Sector Average
Compared to the Consumer Staples sector's average of 24.36, Mondelez International has a trailing twelve month price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.7 and an expected P/E ratio of 23.0. P/E ratios are calculated by dividing the company's share price by either its trailing 12 month ($2.87) or forward earnings per share ($3.21).
Earnings is another term for the net profits left over after subtracting cost of goods sold, taxes, and operating costs from the company's recorded sales revenue. One way of looking at the P/E ratio is that it represents how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar's worth of the company's earnings. Since Mondelez International's P/E ratio is near its sector average of 24.36, we can deduce that the market is fairly valuing the company's earnings.
Mondelez International Is Overvalued in Terms of Expected Growth
Mondelez International's PEG ratio is 2.97. This metric represents the company's earnings per share divided by its expected growth ratio, and is a useful complement to the price to earnings analysis, because it factors in growth to the valuation. A PEG ratio around or below 1 implies that the market in fairly valuing the company in terms of its growth estimates. But when the PEG ratio is higher, as in Mondelez International's case, it tells us the company is overvalued.
MDLZ Has an Average P/B Ratio
Traditionally, stock pickers used to focus primarily on finding issues that were trading significantly below their tangible asset value, to guarantee themselves a margin of safety. But such an approach would screen out many valuable securities because many profitable businesses -- especially those that heavily leverage information technology -- simply do not have many tangible assets compared to more capital intensive companies.
Therefore, modern value investors tend to focus less on absolute price to book value (P/B) ratios. Instead of singling out stocks with a P/B ratio of less than 1, they will compare the target company against its peer group. For Mondelez International, the P/B value is 3.51 while the average for the Consumer Staples sector is 4.29.
Investors Stand to Gain from MDLZ's Cash Flows
Mondelez International has strong cash flows. With a coefficient of variability of 3.0% and an average growth rate of 0.0%, the company is effectively turning its revenue into cash. We calculate Mondelez International's free cash flows by subtracting capital expenditures (long term investments in the business) from its total cash flows from operations. The table below shows us that capital expenditures are evolving at a 1.8% rate, versus -0.4% for operating expenses:
| Date Reported | Cash Flow from Operations ($ k) | Capital expenditures ($ k) | Free Cashflow ($ k) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-03 | 3,908,000 | -906,000 | 4,814,000 | -5.72 |
| 2022-02-04 | 4,141,000 | -965,000 | 5,106,000 | 5.78 |
| 2021-02-05 | 3,964,000 | -863,000 | 4,827,000 | 0.4 |
| 2020-02-07 | 3,965,000 | -843,000 | 4,808,000 | n/a |
Mondelez International's Margins Are Strong
If you buy a stock for the long run, you want the underlying business model to be profitable. Gross margins tell you how much profit the company generates compared to the cost of revenue, which is the cost directly related to providing Mondelez International's goods and services. Operating margins, on the other hand, tell you how much of these profits the company keeps after you take overhead into account.
Mondelez International's Gross Margins
| Date Reported | Revenue ($ k) | Cost of Revenue ($ k) | Gross Margins (%) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-03 | 31,496,000 | -20,184,000 | 35.92 | -8.34 |
| 2022-02-04 | 28,720,000 | -17,466,000 | 39.19 | -0.28 |
| 2021-02-05 | 26,581,000 | -16,135,000 | 39.3 | -1.65 |
| 2020-02-07 | 25,868,000 | -15,531,000 | 39.96 | n/a |
Mondelez International's Operating Margins
| Date Reported | Total Revenue ($ k) | Operating Expenses ($ k) | Operating Margins (%) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-03 | 31,496,000 | -7,516,000 | 12.05 | -28.74 |
| 2022-02-04 | 28,720,000 | -6,397,000 | 16.91 | 8.19 |
| 2021-02-05 | 26,581,000 | -6,292,000 | 15.63 | 0.39 |
| 2020-02-07 | 25,868,000 | -6,310,000 | 15.57 | n/a |
Mondelez International's cost of revenue is growing at a rate of -6.8% in contrast to -4.5% for operating expenses. Sales revenues, on the other hand, have experienced a 5.0% growth rate. As a result, the average gross margins growth is -2.6 and the average operating margins growth rate is -6.2, with coefficients of variability of 4.7% and 13.9% respectively.
Mondelez International Benefits From Positive Market Signals
The market sentiment regarding Mondelez International is overwhelmingly positive. The stock has an average rating of buy and target prices ranging from $80.89 to $68.16. MDLZ is trading -2.75% away from its target price of $75.89. 1.0% of the company's shares are tied to short positions, and 81.7% of the shares are held by institutional investors.
| Date Reported | Holder | Percentage | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-31 | Vanguard Group Inc | 9% | 123,904,325 | $9,144,139,563 |
| 2023-03-31 | Blackrock Inc. | 7% | 98,553,191 | $7,273,225,796 |
| 2023-03-31 | State Street Corporation | 4% | 59,119,319 | $4,363,005,922 |
| 2023-03-31 | Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | 2% | 33,005,957 | $2,435,839,727 |
| 2023-03-31 | JP Morgan Chase & Company | 2% | 29,763,899 | $2,196,575,837 |
| 2023-03-31 | FMR, LLC | 2% | 29,701,526 | $2,191,972,709 |
| 2023-03-31 | Geode Capital Management, LLC | 2% | 25,228,205 | $1,861,841,605 |
| 2023-03-31 | Bank of America Corporation | 2% | 24,785,898 | $1,829,199,348 |
| 2023-03-31 | Morgan Stanley | 2% | 21,919,726 | $1,617,675,845 |
| 2023-03-31 | Wellington Management Group, LLP | 1% | 19,606,799 | $1,446,981,826 |
